Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."